![]() Steve Bullock, who won in 2016 on a platform that included expanding Medicaid, raising the minimum wage and staunchly opposing the Citizens United decision - indicating a political sensibility that could help the incumbent senator prevail. Tester is one of two Democrats in Montana who have hung on to statewide office. Rosendale is banking on leveraging his association with the president.Ī former rancher and teacher, Mr. Tester is trying to keep the race local, while Mr. Described as a “pro-gun, anti-big-business prairie pragmatist,” Mr. The White House has pummeled Montana with a series of visits by high-profile figures, several headlined by the president himself, in an effort to defeat the state’s centrist Democratic senator, Jon Tester, and replace him with Matt Rosendale, the Republican state auditor and a Trump ally. Download the microdata behind this poll.Big Sky Country is home to one of several incumbent Democrats across the country fighting to stay above water in a state President Trump won by double digits.Read more about the methodology for this poll.That’s a measure of how much weighting we are doing to make our respondents resemble all voters. The design effect of this poll is 1.25.Some are delayed longer for technical reasons. Most responses shown here are delayed about 30 minutes.New York 11 Staten Island, southern Brooklyn in 2020 expressing a desire for the deaths of two Trump critics. came after a website released a recording that it said captured Roger J. Pennsylvania 10 South, central Pennsylvania The inquiry by the Capitol Police and the F.B.I. New Jersey 11 Northern New Jersey suburbs. North Carolina 9 Charlotte suburbs, southern N.C. Minnesota 2 Minneapolis suburbs, southern Minn. Other districts where we’ve completed polls California 48 Orange County Senator Tammy Baldwin won a second term, defeating Republican challenger Leah Vukmir by more than 10 percentage points. House elections.Incumbent Democratic U.S. Here are other common ways to weight a poll: The 2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin took place on November 6, 2018, concurrently with a gubernatorial election and U.S. In 2016, many pollsters didn’t weight by education and overestimated Hillary Clinton’s standing as a result. Here, we’re weighting by age, party registration, gender, likelihood of voting, race, education and region, mainly using data from voting records files compiled by L2, a nonpartisan voter file vendor.īut weighting works only if you weight by the right categories and you know what the composition of the electorate will be. Pollsters compensate by giving more weight to respondents from under-represented groups. Some characteristics are missing or incorrect. Harder says he’s “of the valley, for the valley,” but after attending Stanford and Harvard and working as a technology investor, he may be a bit of a mismatch with the working-class parts of this district.īased on administrative records. He’s stressing job creation and expansion of health care. Harder, 32, is a political newcomer (and a newlywed) who beat a crowded primary field and has been endorsed by Barack Obama. Denham, 51, is an Air Force veteran who owns a plastics company and a small almond farm. Denham led an unsuccessful effort to pressure the House to vote on legislation to protect the young undocumented immigrants known as Dreamers. With his district greatly affected by immigration policy, Mr. 5, 2018 By The Editorial Board The editorial board represents the opinions of the board, its editor and the publisher. Democrats have a slight registration edge, but have posted underwhelming results among Latinos in our polling so far. The New York Times endorsements for the 2018 midterm elections. The district, a patchwork of conservative farming communities and liberal-leaning cities east of San Jose, is nearly 45 percent Latino. ![]() 45% favorable rating 45% unfavorable 10% don’t know He voted for the Republican tax bill and to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Jeff Denham is the incumbent, elected in 2010. 46% favorable rating 41% unfavorable 13% don’t know Josh Harder is a former venture capitalist who is now a business instructor at Modesto Junior College. The locations shown here are approximate.Įxplore the 2016 election in detail with this interactive map. To preserve privacy, exact addresses have been concealed.
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